ESCOdds 2023: Difference between revisions

ESCOdds 2023 2023
ESCOdds 2023 2023
Dates
Final	1-13 May 2023
Host
Executive supervisor	Mark Nightingale
Participants
Number of entries	19
Debuting countries	Australia; Denmark; Croatia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Italy; Japan; Kazakhstan; Lebanon; Netherlands; Portugal; San Marino; Serbia; Spain; Sweden; Thailand; United Kingdom; Vietnam
Returning Countries	None
Non-returning Countries	None
	Participation map
Vote
Winning song	Italy; Artyom Alekseyonok
	← ESCOdds 2023 2023 →

VisualWikitext

Revision as of 16:36, 20 May 2023

The ESCOdds 2023 - was the 1st edition of the Eurovision Song Contest Odds that has been ever made and was held from 1 to 13 May 2023.

Nineteen countries will participate in the first odds. Among all the participants, Artyom Alekseyonok (Italy), Denis Nikitin (Vietnam) and Egor Tarashkevich (Germany) took part in the IECO competition for the first time.

Maksim Kamendrowsky and Denis Vorobyov (380 points each) turned out to be the best in the bets on the first semi-final, and Egor Tarashkevich (380 points) in the second semi-final. Evgeny Smykov won the final with 507 points. The final winner for all three evenings was Artyom Alekseyonok with 1140 points. The top five also included Sergey Silkin, Denis Vorobyov, Denis Nikitin and Alexander Sivak.

Format

Semi-Final rules

Each participant had to submit their predicted top ten finalists for each of the two semi-finals of the competition. The participant had the right to change and / or supplement his bet before the broadcast of each of the semi-finals.

Points were awarded for each specified finalist country individually and depended on the number of mentions of a particular finalist country in all bets of all participants. So if the same finalist country was mentioned in all bets, all participants received 10 points each. Further, the less often the finalist country was mentioned in all bets, the value for it increased by 10 points until the moment when the finalist country was mentioned only in one of the eighteen bets - you could get upto 180 points for it.

As a result, all points for the guessed countries were summed up and gave a total for each of the semi-finals.

Changes

Initially, it was planned that only half of the total number of participants in terms of the total amount of points scored in the two semi-finals would advance to the final stage, with all points scored in the semi-finals reset to zero. However, the next day it was decided to abandon this idea in order not to deprive the full participation of all participants.

Grand Final rules

The opportunity to leave your predictions for the final became available from May 4, 2023 and lasted until the broadcast of the final on May 13, 2023.

In the final, each of the participants had to indicate the top forecast of 26 positions, placing the finalist countries in it. In the forecast, the finalist country should not have been repeated.

Points were awarded for each finalist country in the bet as follows:

24 points for a full hit of the occupied place by the finalist country, or 48 points for guessing the position of the country in the top 5;
22 points for an error of +/-1 of the place taken by the finalist country, or 44 points for guessing the position of the country in the top 5;
20 points for an error of +/-2 of the place taken by the finalist country, or 40 points for guessing the position of the country in the top 5;
18 points for an error of +/-3 of the place taken by the finalist country, or 36 points for guessing the position of the country in the top 5;
16 points for an error of +/-4 of the place taken by the finalist country, or 32 points for guessing the position of the country in the top 5;
14 points for an error of +/-5 of the place taken by the finalist country;
12 points for an error of +/-6 of the place taken by the finalist country;
10 points for an error of +/-7 of the place taken by the finalist country;
8 points for an error of +/-8 of the place taken by the finalist country;
7 points for an error of +/-9 of the place taken by the finalist country;
6 points for an error of +/-10 of the place taken by the finalist country;
5 points for an error of +/-11 of the place taken by the finalist country;
4 points for an error of +/-12 of the place taken by the finalist country;
3 points for an error of +/-13 of the place taken by the finalist country;
2 points for an error of +/-14 of the place taken by the finalist country;
1 point for an error of +/-15 of the place taken by the finalist country;
0 points for an error of +/-16 or more from the place taken by the finalist country;

As a result, all the points received were summed up with each other and gave a total for the final.

Summing up and resolving disputed positions

After the results of the final, all the points scored by the participants for the two semi-finals and the final were added together and gave the final final result. During the comparison of points, the winner was revealed.

If two or more participants had equal points, then to determine the strongest of them, the one who scored the most points in the final was determined. If this criterion did not reveal the strongest, then the number of guessed countries for both semi-finals together was compared (not including their value). In case of equality and in this criterion, the strongest was the participant who sent his bet-forecast for the final earlier than his opponents.

Participating Countries

Results

Nineteen participants took part in the bets. Participants could make and change their bets from May 1 and May 9 (before the broadcast of the first semi-final) and until May 11 (before the broadcast of the second semi-final). Bets on the final were accepted from the beginning of May 12 (as soon as all the finalists became known) until the broadcast of the final on May 13, 2023.

Country	Place	Points
Australia, Mark Solovyov	14	1013
Croatia, Sergey Silkin	2	1109
Denmark, Nikita Belonogov	13	1030
Germany, Egor Tarashkevich	11	1045
Greece, Alexander Sivak	5	1094
Hungary, Roman Dudarev	8	1071
Italy, Artyom Alekseyonok	1	1140
Japan, Pasha Kulik	17	936
Kazakhstan, Egor Semenov	18	712
Lebanon, Anton Desyatov	12	1044
Netherlands, Jean Isaac	16	987
Portugal, Denis Vorobyov	3	1101
San Marino, Nikita Likhanov	7	1075
Serbia, Evgenii Smykov	10	1057
Spain, Sergey Ladysev	6	1081
Sweden, Maksim Kamendrowsky	19	610
Thailand, Maksim Bogomolov	15	996
United Kingdom, Igor Kapsharin	9	1060
Vietnam, Denia Nikitin	4	1095

Split Results by each show

First Semi-Final			Second Semi-Final			Grand Final
1	Kamendrowsky	380	1	Tarashkevich	380	1	Smykov	507
1	Vorobyov	380	2	Alekseyonok	370	2	Isaac	497
3	Nikitin	350	3	Dudarev	360	3	Sivak	494
4	Alekseyonok	340	4	Kapsharin	340	4	Solovyov	493
4	Silkin	340	5	Ladysev	330	5	Kulik	476
6	Kapsharin	330	5	Silkin	330	6	Nikitin	475
	Likhanov	330	7	Bogomolov	290	7	Likhanov	475
	Sivak	330	8	Belonogov	270	8	Desyatov	474
9	Belonogov	300		Desyatov	270	9	Belonogov	460
	Bogomolov	300		Likhanov	270	10	Vorobyov	451
	Desyatov	300		Nikitin	270	11	Dudarev	451
	Ladysev	300		Sivak	270	12	Ladysev	451
	Semenov	300		Solovyov	270	13	Silkin	439
	Smykov	300		Vorobyov	270	14	Alekseyonok	430
15	Dudarev	260	15	Smykov	250	15	Tarashkevich	415
	Isaac	260	16	Semenov	240	16	Bogomolov	406
	Kulik	260	17	Isaac	230	17	Kapsharin	390
18	Solovyov	250	17	Kamendrowsky	230	18	Semenov	172
18	Tarashkevich	250	19	Kulik	200	19	Kamendrowsky	0

Semi-Finals

Scoring system for the semi-finals
Number of mentions	19	18	17	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
Points awarded	10	20	30	40	50	60	70	80	90	100	110	120	130	140	150	160	170	180	190

		Points	Norway	Malta	Serbia	Latvia	Portugal	Ireland	Croatia	Switzerland	Israel	Moldova	Sweden	Azerbaijan	Czechia	Netherlands	Finland	Points	Denmark	Armenia	Estonia	Belgium	Cyprus	Iceland	Greece	Poland	Slovenia	Georgia	Austria	Albania	Lithuania	Australia
		1st Semi-Final																2nd Semi-Final
Contestants	Solovyov	250	20	X	40			X	80	40	30		20			X	20	270		20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30		30	30
	Silkin	340	20		40		50		80		30	40	20		50	X	20	330		20		40		X		40	10	X	30	130	30	30
	Belonogov	300	20		40		50	X		40	30	40	20		50		20	270		20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30		30	30
	Tarashkevich	250		X	40	X	50	X	80	40		40		X		X		380			40	40	30			40	10	X	30	130	30	30
	Sivak	330	20		40			X	80	40	30	40	20		50		20	270		20	40	40	30		X	40	10	X	30		30	30
	Dudarev	260	20		40		50	X			30	40	20		50	X	20	360		20		40	30			40	10	X	30	130	30	30
	Alekseyonok	340	20	X	40		50		80	40	30		20		50		20	370		20	40	40	30			40	10	X		130	30	30
	Kulik	260	20	X			50			40	30	40	20		50	X	20	200		20	40	40	30	X	X		10	X			30	30
	Semenov	300	20				50		80	40	30		20	X	50	X	20	240	X	20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30			30
	Desyatov	300	20		40	X	50		80		30	40	20	X			20	270		20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30		30	30
	Isaac	260	20				50	X		40	30	40	20		50	X	20	230		20	40	40	30				10	X	30		30	30
	Vorobyov	380	20		40		50		80	40	30	40	20		50		20	270		20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30		30	30
	Likhanov	330	20		40				80	40	30	40	20		50	X	20	270		20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30		30	30
	Smykov	300	20	X	40		50			40	30	40	20		50		20	250		20		40	30	X		40	10	X	30		30	30
	Ladysev	300	20	X	40		50			40	30	40	20		50		20	330		20	40		30	X		40	10	X	30	130	30
	Kamendrowsky	380	20		40		50		80	40	30	40	20		50		20	230		20	40		30	X		40	10	X	30		30	30
	Bogomolov	300	20	X	40		50			40	30	40	20		50		20	290	X	20	40		30	X			10	X	30	130	30
	Kapsharin	330	20		40				80	40	30	40	20		50	X	20	340		20	40	40		X		40	10	X	30	130		30
	Nikitin	350	20		40		50		80	40		40	20		50	X	20	270		20	40	40	30			40	10	X	30		30	30

Grand Final

All participants announced their bets for the final, except for Maxim Kamendrovsky (Sweden) and a partial bet was made by Yegor Semyonov (Kazakhstan).

The ESC results		Alekseyonok			430	Belonogov			460	Bogomolov			406	Desyatov			474	Dudarev			451	Isaac			497	Kamendrowsky			0
The ESC results		Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.
1	SWE	1	SWE	0	48	1	SWE	0	48	1	FIN	+1	44	1	FIN	+1	44	1	SWE	0	48	1	SWE	0	48	1	Bet not placed
2	FIN	2	FIN	0	48	2	FIN	0	48	2	SWE	-1	44	2	SWE	-1	44	2	FIN	0	48	2	ISR	+1	44	2
3	ISR	3	ISR	0	48	3	ISR	0	48	3	FRA	+13	3	3	ISR	0	48	3	ARM	+11	5	3	FIN	-1	44	3
4	ITA	4	ARM	+10	6	4	FRA	+12	4	4	ESP	+13	3	4	NOR	+1	44	4	ISR	-1	44	4	ITA	0	48	4
5	NOR	5	HRV	+8	8	5	NOR	0	48	5	ITA	-1	44	5	ESP	+12	4	5	NOR	0	48	5	UKR	+1	22	5
6	UKR	6	ITA	-2	20	6	ARM	+8	8	6	NOR	-1	22	6	ARM	+8	8	6	ESP	+11	5	6	ARM	+8	8	6
7	BEL	7	BEL	0	24	7	ITA	-3	18	7	AUT	+8	8	7	AUS	+2	20	7	FRA	+9	7	7	FRA	+9	7	7
8	EST	8	FRA	+8	8	8	ESP	+9	7	8	SVN	+13	3	8	ITA	-4	16	8	ITA	-4	16	8	ESP	+9	7	8
9	AUS	9	CHE	+11	5	9	AUT	+6	12	9	EST	-1	22	9	AUT	+6	12	9	UKR	-3	18	9	AUS	0	24	9
10	CZE	10	ESP	+7	10	10	UKR	-4	16	10	ARM	+4	16	10	BEL	-3	18	10	SVN	+11	5	10	NOR	-5	14	10
11	LTU	11	CYP	+1	22	11	CZE	-1	22	11	GBR	+14	2	11	DEU	+15	1	11	SRB	+13	3	11	AUT	+4	16	11
12	CYP	12	AUT	+3	18	12	SVN	+9	7	12	ISR	-9	7	12	HRV	+1	22	12	AUT	+3	18	12	CYP	0	24	12
13	HRV	13	NOR	-8	8	13	MDA	+5	14	13	CYP	-1	22	13	MDA	+5	14	13	CYP	-1	22	13	CZE	-3	18	13
14	ARM	14	UKR	-8	8	14	AUS	-5	14	14	MDA	+4	16	14	FRA	+2	20	14	HRV	-1	22	14	BEL	-7	10	14
15	AUT	15	SRB	+9	7	15	CYP	-3	18	15	UKR	-9	7	15	CHE	+5	14	15	CHE	+5	14	15	SVN	+6	12	15
16	FRA	16	POL	+3	18	16	SRB	+8	8	16	LTU	-5	14	16	LTU	-5	14	16	MDA	+2	20	16	ALB	+6	12	16
17	ESP	17	AUS	-8	8	17	POL	+2	20	17	CZE	-7	10	17	CYP	-5	14	17	EST	-9	7	17	SRB	+7	10	17
18	MDA	18	EST	-10	6	18	PRT	+5	14	18	PRT	+5	14	18	SVN	+3	18	18	ALB	+4	16	18	PRT	+5	14	18
19	POL	19	DEU	+7	10	19	ALB	+3	18	19	ALB	+3	18	19	EST	-11	5	19	PRT	+4	16	19	CHE	+1	22	19
20	CHE	20	SVN	+1	22	20	HRV	-7	10	20	CHE	0	24	20	UKR	-14	2	20	AUS	-11	5	20	HRV	-7	10	20
21	SVN	21	MDA	-3	18	21	GBR	+4	16	21	SRB	+3	18	21	PRT	+2	20	21	CZE	-11	5	21	MDA	-3	18	21
22	ALB	22	GBR	+3	18	22	CHE	-2	20	22	POL	-3	18	22	GBR	+3	18	22	BEL	-15	1	22	EST	-14	2	22
23	PRT	23	LTU	-12	4	23	EST	-15	1	23	AUS	-14	2	23	SRB	+1	22	23	LTU	-12	4	23	POL	-4	16	23
24	SRB	24	CZE	-14	2	24	DEU	+2	20	24	BEL	-17	0	24	POL	-5	14	24	DEU	+2	20	24	LTU	-13	3	24
25	GBR	25	ALB	-3	18	25	BEL	-18	0	25	DEU	+1	22	25	ALB	-3	18	25	POL	-6	12	25	DEU	+1	22	25
26	DEU	26	PRT	-3	18	26	LTU	-15	1	26	HRV	-13	3	26	CZE	-16	0	26	GBR	-1	22	26	GBR	-1	22	26

The ESC results		Kapsharin			390	Kulik			476	Ladysev			451	Likhanov			475	Nikitin			475	Semenov			172
The ESC results		Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.
1	SWE	1	FIN	+1	44	1	SWE	0	48	1	SWE	0	48	1	SWE	0	48	1	SWE	0	48	1	ARM	+13	3
2	FIN	2	SWE	-1	44	2	FIN	0	48	2	FIN	0	48	2	FIN	0	48	2	FIN	0	48	2	SWE	-1	44
3	ISR	3	ESP	+14	2	3	FRA	+13	3	3	ISR	0	48	3	NOR	+2	40	3	NOR	+2	40	3	FIN	-1	44
4	ITA	4	ISR	-1	44	4	ISR	-1	44	4	NOR	+1	44	4	ISR	-1	44	4	ISR	-1	44	4	FRA	+12	4
5	NOR	5	AUT	+10	6	5	ITA	-1	44	5	FRA	+11	5	5	UKR	+1	22	5	UKR	+1	22	5	UKR	+1	22
6	UKR	6	UKR	0	24	6	ESP	+11	5	6	ITA	-2	20	6	FRA	+10	6	6	FRA	+10	6	6	Bet not placed
7	BEL	7	NOR	-2	20	7	NOR	-2	20	7	ESP	+10	6	7	AUT	+8	8	7	AUT	+8	8	7	ITA	-3	18
8	EST	8	ITA	-4	16	8	UKR	-2	20	8	GBR	+17	0	8	ITA	-4	16	8	ITA	-4	16	8	Bet not placed
9	AUS	9	FRA	+7	10	9	AUT	+6	12	9	AUT	+6	12	9	ESP	+8	8	9	ESP	+8	8	9
10	CZE	10	ARM	+4	16	10	ARM	+4	16	10	ARM	+4	16	10	GBR	+15	1	10	GBR	+15	1	10
11	LTU	11	HRV	+2	20	11	SLV	+10	6	11	CZE	-1	22	11	CZE	-1	22	11	CZE	-1	22	11	ESP	+6	12
12	CYP	12	POL	+7	10	12	BEL	-5	14	12	SVN	+9	7	12	ARM	+2	20	12	ARM	+2	20	12	Bet not placed
13	HRV	13	SVN	+8	8	13	AUS	-4	16	13	UKR	-7	10	13	SVN	+8	8	13	SVN	+8	8	13
14	ARM	14	DEU	+12	4	14	CHE	+6	10	14	CHE	+6	10	14	AUS	-5	14	14	AUS	-5	14	14
15	AUT	15	GBR	+10	6	15	MDA	+3	18	15	MDA	+3	18	15	CHE	+5	12	15	CHE	+5	12	15	DEU	+11	5
16	FRA	16	MDA	+2	20	16	HRV	-3	18	16	PRT	+7	10	16	HRV	-3	18	16	HRV	-3	18	16	Bet not placed
17	ESP	17	SRB	+7	10	17	CZE	-7	10	17	CYP	-5	14	17	BEL	-10	6	17	BEL	-10	6	17
18	MDA	18	BEL	-11	5	18	EST	-10	6	18	POL	+1	22	18	MDA	0	24	18	MDA	0	24	18
19	POL	19	EST	-11	5	19	GBR	+6	12	19	HRV	-6	12	19	POL	0	24	19	POL	0	24	19
20	CHE	20	AUS	-11	5	20	CYP	-8	8	20	AUS	-11	5	20	CYP	-8	8	20	CYP	-8	8	20
21	SVN	21	CZE	-11	5	21	DEU	+5	14	21	BEL	-14	2	21	SRB	+3	18	21	SRB	+3	18	21
22	ALB	22	CHE	-2	20	22	ALB	0	24	22	EST	-14	2	22	EST	-14	2	22	EST	-14	2	22
23	PRT	23	CYP	-11	5	23	POL	-4	16	23	LTU	-12	4	23	DEU	+3	18	23	DEU	+3	18	23	GBR	+2	20
24	SRB	24	ALB	-2	20	24	SRB	0	24	24	ALB	-2	20	24	PRT	-1	22	24	PRT	-1	22	24	Bet not placed
25	GBR	25	PRT	-2	20	25	LTU	-14	2	25	SRB	-1	22	25	LTU	-14	2	25	LTU	-14	2	25
26	DEU	26	LTU	-15	1	26	PRT	-3	18	26	DEU	0	24	26	ALB	-4	16	26	ALB	-4	16	26

The ESC results		Silkin				Sivak				Smykov				Solovyov				Tarashkevich				Vorobyov
The ESC results		Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.	Pl.	Country	Dif.	Pts.
1	SWE	1				1				1				1				1				1
2	FIN	2				2				2				2				2				2
3	ISR	3				3				3				3				3				3
4	ITA	4				4				4				4				4				4
5	NOR	5				5				5				5				5				5
6	UKR	6				6				6				6				6				6
7	BEL	7				7				7				7				7				7
8	EST	8				8				8				8				8				8
9	AUS	9				9				9				9				9				9
10	CZE	10				10				10				10				10				10
11	LTU	11				11				11				11				11				11
12	CYP	12				12				12				12				12				12
13	HRV	13				13				13				13				13				13
14	ARM	14				14				14				14				14				14
15	AUT	15				15				15				15				15				15
16	FRA	16				16				16				16				16				16
17	ESP	17				17				17				17				17				17
18	MDA	18				18				18				18				18				18
19	POL	19				19				19				19				19				19
20	CHE	20				20				20				20				20				20
21	SVN	21				21				21				21				21				21
22	ALB	22				22				22				22				22				22
23	PRT	23				23				23				23				23				23
24	SRB	24				24				24				24				24				24
25	GBR	25				25				25				25				25				25
26	DEU	26				26				26				26				26				26

Criticism

Scoring system for the semi-finals

Even before the start of accepting bets, there was an idea to halve the value of getting points for qualification from the semi-finals of a guessed bet. After the announcement of the results of the finals, an active action was launched to call for a change in the system for scoring points in the semi-finals by half - instead of 10 points, award 5 points. This was due to the fact that the value of the two semi-finals together was higher than the value of the final (approximately 65% to 35%). On the same day, an alternative table was made with the proposed semi-final scoring system for comparison with the current results. The alternative table showed that the value of the final was now higher than the value of both semi-finals (approximately 35% for both semi-finals at 65% of the final), and the final positions were approximately more average.